Ngl, finding a new R6 Mark II with glass for 1600 is a total pipe dream, even with Black Friday madness. Ive been tracking these prices for a long time and that body holds its value way too well. Technically, the R8 is almost identical under the hood, same sensor and same autofocus, but you lose the IBIS and the big battery. For your specific needs, here is how the tech actually plays out:

• IBIS is great for street photography at night when you want a slow shutter speed without a tripod.
• For your kids soccer games, IBIS wont save you. You need high shutter speeds to freeze motion, and at 1/1000s, stabilization doesnt do anything for the image anyway.
• Lens stabilization is often more effective for long telephoto shots than IBIS is alone. If you really want to stay under that 1600 mark and get a lens, look at the Canon EOS R8 Mirrorless Camera Body and grab the Canon RF 24-105mm f/4-7.1 IS STM Lens. That lens has decent IS built-in to compensate for the R8 lack of IBIS. Another sleeper pick is the Canon EOS R7 Mirrorless Camera Body. It actually has IBIS and the crop sensor is better for sports because it makes your lenses feel longer on the field. It fits your budget way better than stretching for an R6 II that might not even drop that low... just my two cents after years of shooting cameras.

TL;DR: Check official refurbished stores for the best reliability and actual savings. Honestly, getting the Canon EOS R6 Mark II Full-Frame Mirrorless under $1600 with a lens is a huge stretch. I usually stick to the Canon refurb store because its safe and you get a full warranty. You can grab the Canon EOS R8 with RF 24-50mm f/4.5-6.3 IS STM Kit there way cheaper than retail. It works great and you dont have to worry about fake holiday markups.

Regarding what #5 said about "Same boat, watching this" - honestly, dont bother waiting for a big holiday bundle deal. Most of them are just filler to clear out old stock. If you're on a strict $1600 limit, you should just build your own kit with older glass instead of hoping for a price drop that might not happen. Grab the Canon EOS R8 Mirrorless Camera body and the Canon Mount Adapter EF-EOS R. Then find a used Canon EF 24-105mm f/4L IS USM. This setup gives you way better image quality and better stabilization than any of the RF kit lenses you'll find on sale. Since the R8 lacks IBIS, having a high-quality stabilized lens is pretty much non-negotiable for those soccer games. It puts you right at your budget and you wont be stuck with a cheap kit lens you'll just want to replace in three months anyway.

Ngl I am struggling with the exact same thing right now and it is beyond frustrating. Over the years I have usually been able to spot the real deals but this season is just a mess. I have been hunting for a real price drop for weeks and every site feels like it is playing games with the numbers. Honestly I am just as lost as you... still cant find a straight answer.

> i need it before my trip in December. Are we actually gonna see decent bundles soon or should I just go refurbished? Regarding what #1 said about the official refurbished stores... honestly thats the way to go if you want peace of mind. Ngl you gotta watch out for those massive Black Friday bundles on big marketplaces. Most of the time they just fill the box with cheap junk like tiny tripods and slow SD cards to make it look like a deal when its really not. Shipping is the other thing. If you wait until the last second for a flash sale, there is a huge chance it wont arrive before your trip in December. Logistics get messy fast. Also, be super careful with too good to be true prices from third-party sellers. Half the time those are gray market units, meaning they wont have a valid local warranty if the sensor dies or something. Just go refurb from a legit source so you actually have a working camera for your kids soccer games... it isnt worth the stress of saving an extra fifty bucks just to get scammed or stuck with a dud.

Same boat, watching this