Honestly, checking every hour is just gonna stress you out. In my experience, Sony keeps their prices locked until the very last second to avoid everyone price-matching too early. If you need a body for a gig in December, dont gamble on a miracle sale. For a $2000 budget, here are two safe bets I have looked into:

• Sony Alpha a7C II 33.0MP Full-Frame Mirrorless Camera: It has the newest AF tech which is amazing for tracking kids during family shoots. But honestly, the single card slot is a huge risk for paid work. If that card fails, you are in trouble.
• Sony Alpha a7R IV 61.0MP Full-Frame Mirrorless Camera: You might find this used or on a slight holiday discount soon. Dual slots and huge resolution make it very safe for professional sessions. Stick to authorized sellers tho. Gray market gear is tempting but losing the warranty is a nightmare.

Sony usually waits until the actual week of Thanksgiving to flip the switch on their official promo prices, so dont panic just yet. I remember last year they didnt drop the big rebates until like Wednesday morning. Since you got a deadline, maybe look at a Sony Alpha a7 IV Mirrorless Camera Body which usually sees a few hundred off during these cycles. My quick tip is to check the used market at places like MPB or KEH for a Sony Alpha a7R IV 61MP Body. You can often find them under 2k in mint condition and they're absolute tanks for family sessions. If you're really desperate for a deal right now, keep an eye on Focus Camera or even Amazon bundles since they sometimes leak the price drops early. Honestly tho, switching systems right before a big shoot sounds like a headache you dont need... stick with the glass you already have.

ngl i have been refreshing these pages every single day too! the suspense is killing me but sony is notorious for waiting until the last second to flip the switch. if you are worried about that shutter failing on you before december, you really need to look at the reliability of the R series... it is absolutely amazing for family shoots where you need that extra resolution for cropping in post!

• Sony Alpha 7R III A 42.4MP Mirrorless Digital Camera - incredible value right now and the shutter mechanism is built like a tank.
• Sony Alpha 7C Full-Frame Compact Mirrorless Camera - it is super light and uses the same NP-FZ100 battery as your a7iii, plus youll have plenty of money left for glass!
• Sony FE 85mm f/1.8 Lens - if you save on the body, you can snag this for those family portraits, the bokeh is fantastic for the price. you totally got this! just hold out a few more days and i bet the prices will crater. let me know if you need help comparing the sensor data or AF tracking specs, love talking shop!

Would love to know this too

Big if true

Like someone mentioned, Sony really does love playing chicken with their customers until the very last second. I have been through this cycle more times than I can count and it never gets less annoying when you have a deadline looming. Honestly, refreshing those pages every hour is just gonna drive you crazy. If you are worried about that shutter failing before your big session, I would suggest taking a more DIY approach to finding a deal instead of waiting on the big box stores to flip a switch.

• Check out smaller authorized regional shops that might have open-box units
• Look into the used market for people offloading gear to fund their own holiday upgrades
• Hit up some of the gear exchange forums where you can vet the seller personally Just stick with any of the newer Sony full-frame bodies and you will be golden. You really cant go wrong with the brand right now, especially since you already have the lenses. Switching systems is a massive headache and you definitely dont want to be fumbling with new menus during a paid family shoot. If the sale doesnt happen by next week, maybe just grab a used body to get you through the gig and sell it back later. Better to have a working camera than a few extra bucks in the bank and a failed shutter mid-shoot.